July 3, 2025

Uncertainty reigns as boxmakers navigate the fast-paced nature of the new administration

Any new administration brings change, but when Donald Trump became president again, he was referred to as a disruptor, and everyone would likely agree that he has brought some dramatic changes to the United States and its economy with his focus on tariffs and his push to bring U.S. manufacturing back to its heyday.

So with that in mind, BoxScore asked AICC members what they thought about the current state of the tariff situation, and several stalwart member leaders had lots to say.

What are your customers’ reactions to the tariffs and stock market upheaval?

Customers are cautious

Greg Tucker, chairman and CEO of Bay Cities Packaging & Design, headquartered in Pico Rivera, California, says many of his clients “are taking a wait-and-see approach to understand just what is next. Nobody knows what will happen next on Trump’s Magical Mystery Tour.”

Tucker himself is feeling good about the mystery tour, and he thinks clients are hopeful. “We have seen, over the past 20 to 30 years, a good amount of brave folks marching into China with folding cartons, corrugated boxes, and displays to create a footprint of a packaging supply chain for all of those that have stripped the U.S. of their manufacturing business. What we see today is great interest in bringing that business home—and very quickly.”

In fact, Tucker says, the phone has been ringing off the hook from existing and potential clients looking to get their packaging needs fulfilled in the U.S.

Customers are concerned

Bob Cohen, president of Acme Corrugated Box, headquartered in Hatboro, Pennsylvania, says that while many of his clients are in the pharmaceutical and food sectors, “which may be tariff- and recession-proof, our customers remain concerned.”

He remarked that disruptions in the supply chain are making clients edgy. “If products bound for the U.S. are stuck in China because of an ongoing trade war, I think that’s an issue,” Cohen says. “Companies are rethinking capital projects because of the uncertainty. If you’re an independent thinking of buying expensive equipment or implementing
a hiring freeze, you may hold off on those decisions if the business climate is a concern.”

Customers are being proactive

Ian Bernstein, president of Trenton Corrugated Products, a manufacturer in Trenton, New Jersey, says he is seeing “a range of reactions” from his clients, but some are taking action. Unfortunately, not all of the action is the type you would want your customers to take.

“Some customers are actively looking for reshoring, and many are at least exploring bringing things back to the United States,” he says. “On the flip side, we’ve had some customers who import products, who have pushed off taking deliveries. We’ve got people who are concerned about a recession and are holding things tighter to the vest and stringing out their cash payments a little bit. I think it’s a whole range of reactions.”

How do you see business going for the rest of the year?

Buckle up

“Business conditions will be bumpy for a while as we get more clarity as to what will take place,” Tucker says.

He thinks the year will have ups and downs. “Uncertainty is what has taken the markets down so hard. The speed at which this administration is going is what is creating this uncertainty.”

The speed, though, is important, Tucker says. He feels that if the way the country has been working isn’t changed, “within five years, this country will be in a depression. We are upside down.”

Things may go really well

Cohen also sees bumps, but he says, “I’m always optimistic. I do think that if we get past this uncertain period, it could be a good year.”

Cohen says the way the tariffs have been handled so far, or at least at the time of this writing, could have been more coherent. However, he says, “the goals are commendable.”

One thing that will help Acme, Cohen says, is that 60% of their paper comes from Canada, where the former United States-Canada-Mexico Agreement allows for paper products to pass over the border without the announced tariffs. Twenty percent of Acme’s paper comes from Europe, which has a 10% tariff. It could be a lot worse; Acme is fortunate to have little contact with China.

“I don’t fret over a possible recession,” he says, citing the recessions the company has weathered through over the years. “If we have to adjust, we’ll adjust.”

Things may not go so well

Bernstein sounds like his counterparts. “I’m very uncertain. I feel like I’m walking on a tightrope, with a possible recession on one side, which would be bad for our business, obviously, but on the other side is this move toward reshoring and using U.S. manufacturing, which would be an upside for us. I’m not sure which side of the tightrope becomes a predominant feature.”

As for the moment, Bernstein says, “it’s, so far, pretty steady as she goes, but that could all change tomorrow.”

How have you been handling the shortage of labor, and what strategies have you deployed to retain good talent?

There is a true labor shortage in the United States in manufacturing, and chances are, AICC members have felt it. For instance, according to Supply Chain Management Review, in the third quarter of 2024, 20.6% of manufacturing plants in the U.S. failed to produce at their full capacity and cited insufficient supply of labor as a main factor.

Labor climate has mostly been pretty favorable

“Labor has not been that big of an issue for some time,” Tucker says, though he adds that the new people he hires need training.

“Looking at the students coming out of colleges and high schools, they are hungry for work and are no longer picking and choosing where they want to go and how much they will accept in wages. This has been noticeable for the past two years,” Tucker says.

“Finding executive-level folks in this market is a problem. The industry, like many others, is going through a shift where the baby boomers are moving on or should be and those behind them just don’t have the skills and the experience to lead.”

Know where to find your workers

Cohen, too, has managed to dodge labor shortage problems, in large part, because he has found an employee supplier.

“I do a lot of charity work,” he says, and that led to his working with JEVS Human Services, a nonprofit that, among other things, helps train refugees for jobs to help them get settled into the country.

“We have 35 Ukraine nationals working at our company, so we have access to a supply of labor, of hardworking people, and many are highly educated.”

It’s been a boon for the company’s culture, Cohen says. That the plant is highly automated also helps with the labor situation, he adds.

You may have to work harder

Bernstein also isn’t seeing any serious labor shortages on his end. “I think this is one of the easier labor markets that I can remember. Not that it’s easy, but compared with where we’ve been, things are trending toward better on the labor front.”

For one, Bernstein says workers aren’t fleeing for the exits, looking for better jobs. “People seem to be hanging onto their chairs a little tighter,” he says.

For another, Bernstein is happy with the people who are looking for work. “I feel like we’re seeing a better pool of candidates when we’re hiring,” he adds. “The labor shortage to me, at this point, is more related to very specific skill sets. For instance, great maintenance people aren’t the easiest to come by, from a training standpoint. Our education system hasn’t done a great job of producing people with their skill sets. A lot of people want office jobs, and when you’re trying to fill those roles, you have plenty of candidates.”

What are your thoughts on manufacturing returning to the U.S. and the impact that could have on your business?

Cautious optimism, part one

Tucker seems very optimistic about what lies ahead. “If Americans can be patient and let things play out, we will witness one of the greatest manufacturing revolutions in our history,” he says. “This will take time and will have some pain as we reestablish our role in the world of manufacturing.”

The way Tucker sees it, “Trump’s ultimate goal is to restore our economy by first leveling the playing field, dropping the dollar so we can be competitive, repairing decades of reckless spending by eliminating the debt in our country and reestablishing America as the world’s powerhouse. What that will mean is a tremendous amount of packaging for all of us to enjoy the fruits of.”

He adds that “if we open the hood, we see more than $6 trillion of new investments coming to America that didn’t cost the American taxpayer one penny.”

Cautious optimism, part two

Cohen is hopeful, too, though he doesn’t sound quite as confident as Tucker does. “I feel very positive about manufacturing returning to the U.S., but quite frankly, the political situation is fraught with danger for companies. If you bring back manufacturing, you have to build facilities, and it can take two years to get a property started and to build a plant and get permitting and everything. And if you have a change in the political atmosphere, where things are antibusiness, that becomes a problem. So how do you make plans? That’s my concern. Will we return to antibusiness climate, and all of these ideas will be shortchanged and sidelined by the next administration? I think the goal is great, but some of the ways that the administration is trying to go about it are unrealistic.”

“There are a lot of conflicting issues that need to be figured out, and I don’t know if there’s a political will to tackle all of them.”

Cautious optimism, part three

“I’m in favor of it, generally,” Bernstein says, but he shares Cohen’s feeling that it’s going to be a challenge to make America a manufacturing hub once again. Still, Bernstein says it would solve a lot of logistical problems, recalling all of the supply chain problems his company and the industry had during the COVID-19 pandemic and some of the security issues they’ve seen with supply chains.

But Bernstein says U.S. labor costs will go up, since nobody will work for, say, 75 cents an hour, the way other countries can get away with.

“We all want cheap stuff, but I do think we’ve created a lot of other security and supply chain issues that we need to be thinking about,” he says. “Still, from a selfish perspective, reshoring would be good for us.”