In the recent post-COVID years, boxmakers’ outlook on the industry was typically summed up as “cautiously optimistic.” At the end of 2025, however, caution may be outweighing the optimism.
A Stable Slump
Derek Volk, CEO of Maine-based Volk Packaging Corp., reports, “The corrugated box market is sluggish. It’s not terrible, but we’re not setting any records either. We haven’t lost any significant customers; everybody just seems to be buying less.”
Volk’s experience aligns with a November 2025 report from the Institute for Supply Management, which found that its purchasing managers’ index of manufacturing activity dropped from 49.1 in September to 48.7 in October. That drop may seem negligible. But in an earlier Wall Street Journal poll, U.S. economists predicted the index would rise to 49.3.
That expectation was based on growth during the late-summer months.
“There were gains in new orders in August followed by production in September,” the Journal reported. Unfortunately, those short gains did not translate into sustained growth for the sector, “a reflection of continuing economic uncertainty,” the Journal concluded.
Volk notes that when he asks customers why they are now buying less, the answer is always tariffs. “It’s the default answer,” he says, adding, “I could probably ask them, ‘Why is your mom sick?’ And they’d say, ‘Tariffs!’ Right now, it’s the easiest response.”
Even so, he says, “I don’t doubt that it’s true in a lot of [customers’] cases. Their costs are all going up, so people are keeping a very tight inventory and buying less of the goods that would go into our boxes. It has nothing to do with my product, the board, or the paper. If people don’t have an immediate need to ship something, they’re not going to put it on their floor right now. People aren’t buying boxes they don’t absolutely need.”
Despite the downturn, Volk stresses that customers are paying their bills, inventory is under control, and cash flow is fine. “I don’t think the economy is weak,” he states. “We just need to work through this slump until everybody starts buying like crazy again.”
Chuck Schneider, CEO of Pennsylvania-based Amtech Software, notes that talk of tariffs early in 2025 created an atmosphere of uncertainty that made many companies hesitant to invest. “A lot of our customers weren’t sure which direction things would go, so they pulled back,” he says. “Some of our projects were delayed, put on hold, or, in a few cases, dropped altogether. Our business didn’t fall off a cliff, but it definitely slowed down by the end of Q2, and the third quarter was particularly quiet. The good news is that by Q4, activity has started to pick up again.”
For Toronto-based Royal Containers, the picture is slightly rosier, according to Vice President of Sales Kirk Cormier. “The corrugated packaging industry in Canada can best be described as stable,” he says, “though uncertainty persists surrounding tariffs, consumer confidence, and broader macroeconomic pressures. While full market stability has yet to return, industry performance remains resilient given the headwinds currently in play.”
“I think the industry is rebounding from the recent slowdown,” says a more optimistic Jeff Pallini, CEO of Wisconsin-based Fosber America. “We went from a crazy busy period these last five years—something that most of us have never seen before—to a slow-down period due to a lot of mergers and acquisitions, a presidential election, tariffs, and so on. But now I’m starting to see a pickup and a lot of optimism. As a machinery supplier, we are seeing an increase in the amount of quote requests, active projects, and backlog. Of course, it varies based on region, but most people I’ve talked to are back to being closer to prepandemic levels.”
The Tariff Toll
Tariffs are expected to continue taking a toll on business, not least because of the uncertainty caused by the Trump administration’s frequent and unpredictable changes to its own policies. “I get the sense from our customers that everybody is just holding tight right now,” Volk says, “trying to figure out what’s going to happen with the tariffs.”
Schneider acknowledges that “it can still feel like things change weekly” when it comes to tariffs. Yet he thinks the discussion has settled down to the point where customers are confident that additional major changes are unlikely. “We’re seeing companies budget for upgrades and new equipment for 2026. Some are already investing in expansion projects because they have the financial stability to move forward. From what I’m seeing, optimism is returning, and the industry appears to be heading in the right direction.”
As an international equipment manufacturer, Fosber has a somewhat different perspective. Forty percent of the company’s machine production is in the U.S., while 60% is in Italy. “Anything we import from Italy is, of course, subject to the present 15% tariff,” Pallini explains.
Most customers have been understanding when it comes to the additional costs that tariffs entail. “The biggest challenge we’ve encountered in this area has been with orders we received 12–18 months ago, when there weren’t any tariffs,” Pallini says. “Now, when it’s time to ship that equipment, tariffs are being applied. It’s sometimes challenging to work through that with the customer, because neither of us planned on [those increases].
“I think everybody’s doing their best to address tariffs in a very professional way, and it hasn’t been a big hurdle for us. I know it’s much more challenging for suppliers shipping from some countries that have higher tariffs. The No. 1 complaint right now is the uncertainty: Is this the new norm, or are we going to get another curveball down the road?”
Challenges and Changes
Among the industry leaders we spoke to, the supply-chain issues of recent years seem to have been resolved. However at least one important past challenge remains.
“It is still challenging to recruit and retain good talent,” Pallini says. “A lot of people still want to work from home, so some of the labor changes that started around 2020 still remain.” The situation is similar in Canada, where Cormier notes that rising unemployment continues to heighten concerns around maintaining a stable labor force.
In addition, new marketplace developments are arising that bring their own challenges and require new strategies in response. For example, vendor consolidation is at the top of Cormier’s list. “Customers are seeking strategic partners capable of providing comprehensive, end-to-end solutions across corrugated packaging, displays, folding cartons, printing, and fulfillment,” he says. To address those needs, the company has invested in equipment that provides an open-box printing experience, delivering inside- and outside-the-box graphics in a single pass and focused on providing such value-added capabilities as digital printing, lithographic printing, and high-end flexographic solutions. “Additionally, our dedicated transportation fleet provides a meaningful competitive advantage by offering greater control over delivery performance and enhanced customer service,” Cormier says.
Pallini is seeing a growing interest in higher-quality, flatter sheets and high-quality sheets for digital printing. “During the pandemic, with all the e-commerce business, it was all about volume and going faster, going wider, and producing more MSF. Now, it’s more about the quality of sheet,” he says.
More of Schneider’s customers now are interested in running their own digital printing or shifting toward short-run jobs, which is leading to changes in how jobs need to be managed. “That shift demands more efficient processes,” he says. “If the job runs for only 15 minutes before the next changeover, there’s no time for manual data entry [during the job]. When jobs turn over that quickly, spending even two minutes typing in information doesn’t make sense. Digital printing eliminates setup time, so every second counts. That means technology providers must make their systems faster, smarter, and more adaptable.”
Faster, smarter, and more adaptable applications and systems will likely take advantage of developments in AI, which seems poised to expand well beyond predictive-maintenance implementations in the coming year.
“Many customers are looking at how AI can improve customer service and accelerate quoting,” Schneider notes. Typically, he says, when a buyer requests quotes from multiple vendors, the first to respond usually gets the job. “So we’re testing AI tools that dramatically reduce quoting time so that during or shortly after an initial call customers can receive an accurate quote that once might have taken a full day. Using AI to automate cost analysis and quote generation gives boxmakers a real competitive edge.”
Schneider also believes AI will reshape sales as well, allowing boxmakers to better identify, target, and engage potential customers. “Imagine if a customer called to ask, ‘What’s the status of my order?’ and an AI voice assistant instantly provided the answer. That technology already exists, and I believe we’ll see it deployed across the industry as soon as 2026.”
On the Verge
Pallini perhaps sums it up best when he says, “I don’t see 2026 as a big-growth year or a record-setting year. But it has the potential to be a good year for growth in the value-added areas.”
“I don’t have a crystal ball for 2026,” Volk admits, “but I don’t think there are going to be any great changes in the next year or so. I’m optimistic, but maybe I’m always optimistic; if you’re not optimistic, maybe you shouldn’t be running a business.
“I think about my father and grandfather. They would never say their glass was half full. Their glass was always three-quarters full! That’s the way I was raised. I always believe that next year is going to be even better, and I have confidence that the next year will be even better. So that’s what I’m hoping for.
“I think we’re on the verge of something pretty good. We just have to get there, one day at a time.”
Robert Bittneris a Michigan-based freelance journalist and frequent BoxScore contributor.
