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Warning Signs, Leading Indicators, and the Risk of Not Doing Something

By Tom Weber

August 24, 2026

“I should’ve seen this coming,” he told me. “I just kept hoping it wouldn’t really happen.”

That phone call still troubles me. This isn’t a story about a bad businessperson. This is a story about a longtime packaging leader having the warning signs and leading indicators and not doing anything about it. And in this industry, that gap between seeing something and doing something about it is the difference between leading a company that’s growing and one that’s slowly running out of time.

I’ve spent my career in packaging, and over the last decade or so, I’ve consulted with two kinds of leaders who really stand out to me. The first kind keeps doing what has always worked. Making small adjustments at the margins and hoping that their dog-eared playbook continues to deliver. The second one stays restless and curious, as they are always learning and always asking questions. They are also striving, along with their team, to position their companies for what’s next, trying to anticipate the future.

To me, the second group is winning, not because they’re smarter but because they’ve built a set of habits that allow them to be honest with themselves about where the gaps are and are open to ideas in how to fill them.

Four Traits That Help Define Those Who Thrive to Improve

Agility

As in a good basketball player, agility is the ability to pivot without losing your footing. Agility isn’t about being impulsive either. To me, it’s about shortening the gap between seeing the signal and doing something about it. It’s about being willing to abandon what’s not working anymore, even when it’s something you’ve built and you’re proud of. The market has moved on, customers have moved on, and it’s time for you to move on.

Multitalented

The best print and packaging leaders I’ve ever seen have been genuinely fluent across all aspects of the business. They could walk into a pressroom floor, spot a production bottleneck, and help the operator work through it. Then, they’d sit down with the CFO, hold a real conversation around the financials, and close it up by solidifying a strategic partnership over dinner. They weren’t a superhero, but they were engaged and knew their business.

Be Curious

Why is it that some of the top packaging executives always have time to attend the conferences, the shows, the peer groups, and more? They are curious, they’re lifelong learners, and their view is, you never know what you might find out. The fact is, though: Curiosity is underrated as a trait. It won’t show up on your financials. But it is the engine behind almost every good strategic decision I’ve seen made in this industry. It’s asking your largest client about what keeps them up at night and having the courage to actually listen to the answer. It’s reading and learning from outside of the packaging industry, because the ideas that could reshape our businesses are often coming from somewhere else first. It’s being willing to say “I don’t know” in a room where perhaps you’re expected to know everything.

The ones that scare or worry me are the ones who have stopped being surprised. They have all the answers for everything—usually before the question is even finished.

Anticipation

Some of the best leaders see what’s happening around the curve before they’re in it. Anticipation is different from trying to predict the future. You just need to stay close enough to the edge of what you’re doing and the clients you’re working with so that you can see the signals early. You have to ask more than “what do my clients need today?” You’ll actually have to ask and anticipate what they may need in three years. Will you still be the one relevant enough to help them?

This means paying attention to your clients and in the markets surrounding you. It means watching how the next-generation clients—the ones 35 and under right now—are making decisions and learning what they actually value. It may also mean doing some “what if” planning that goes beyond just the annual strategic off-site. Have that honest conversation about the two or three different future paths that could unfold and what you should do in each one of them. This could be a great exercise for your senior leadership team to see how they think and anticipate beyond the curve.

Now for the Fun Part

Rate yourself from 1 to 5 on those four traits. A few things to keep in mind as you do this: First and foremost, you don’t need to be a superhero. That’s right, you don’t need to have the top score in all of these. Nobody really does. The goal here is much more about self-awareness. A leader who knows they are a 2 in a certain area and builds a team around that gap is far better positioned than one who doesn’t know it’s a gap at all.

The next step comes to having someone else do this about you. This could be a trusted peer, a senior member of your team, or better yet, your significant other. Compare the scores. The gaps between how you see yourself and how others see you are usually where the most important work can be accomplished for the largest gains!


Tom Weber is president of WeberSource LLC and is AICC’s folding carton and rigid box technical advisor. Contact Tom directly at asktom@AICCbox.org.

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