Beyond the Midterms

August 24, 2026

Following the hot-button industry issues for the new Congress class

The 2024 U.S. elections returned Republicans to the White House and gave the party control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The subsequent two years have been tumultuous, however, and Republican control of Congress now is looking vulnerable; the November midterm elections could shift the landscape once again.

What that might mean for boxmakers is anyone’s guess—and unpredictability is a hallmark of the current administration. Some issues split cleanly along party lines, making it easy to anticipate impact on the industry of either a Republican or Democratic Congress. For other matters, those lines are blurred.

Global Oversupply

Section 301 is a provision of the Trade Act of 1974, giving the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) authority to investigate foreign trade practices and then impose tariffs when those practices are found to “burden or restrict” U.S. commerce. It puts no ceiling on tariff rates and has no built-in expiration date. However, it requires a formal investigation and a public comment process before tariffs can take effect.

Currently, there is one outstanding Section 301 investigation with relevance for boxmakers. That investigation is looking at structural manufacturing overcapacity in 16 world economies—including China, the European Union, and Mexico—that the administration argues depresses global prices and disadvantages U.S. producers.

That claim seems to run counter to the experiences of many independent U.S. boxmakers. “If there is global overcapacity, that’s surprising, because I’m seeing so many price increases going on right now,” says Oklahoma Interpak Owner Eric Elgin.

A constriction within U.S. paper manufacturing has led to the rising costs locally. Meanwhile, all of that overseas excess is being kept out of the North American market by the relatively high cost of shipping. The administration’s concern is that when shipping costs eventually come down, the U.S. market will be flooded with inexpensive paperboard that could seriously disadvantage American manufacturers.

In May, the American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA) testified before the USTR in support of its Section 301 investigation. In an AF&PA press release, David Ross, the organization’s director of government affairs, was quoted as telling the USTR, “Trade policy shapes manufacturing decisions. We support a fact-based review of excess capacity, while avoiding measures that could put U.S. jobs, investment, or operations at risk.” He urged a careful, evidence-based approach to the committee’s investigation, which is currently ongoing.

“AF&PA advocacy is centered on the people and communities our industry supports, not election results,” adds Julie Landry, AF&PA’s vice president of government affairs. “We want U.S. paper and packaging manufacturers competing on a level playing field globally,” backed by policies that facilitate “members’ ability to make essential products, invest in facilities, and support U.S. manufacturing jobs.”

Implementation of Section 301 does not break down neatly along party lines. It was the basis for tariffs imposed by both the Biden and Trump administrations. However, Republicans have been particularly keen on the use of tariffs as bargaining chips; a Republican-led Congress would likely speed the investigation along.

Taxing Labor

As any boxmaker knows, “Labor remains a key cost driver,” AICC Now acknowledged this spring. “Retaining skilled workers has become more expensive, with real hourly wages for corrugated box plant employees rising nearly 50% over the past five years.” Nothing on the November ballot will change that. Hourly wages have climbed not because of Washington policy but because of a labor market with a scarcity of laborers.

One issue on which labor costs and the midterms do meet is the “no tax on overtime” deduction. Included in 2025’s tax bill, the deduction allows eligible hourly workers to deduct up to $12,500 of overtime premium pay from their federal taxable income.

The deduction is set to expire at the end of 2028. However, it may be an oversimplification to say that whichever party controls Congress after this fall will decide if that relief becomes permanent or disappears. While some Democrats have opposed the administration’s so-called One Big, Beautiful Bill Act—of which untaxed overtime is a part—others have pushed for the provision to be expanded onto additional classes of workers. It seems there are factions within both parties that could be swayed either way on the issue.

Lukewarm on Heat

Worker health is under discussion thanks to a pending OSHA workplace heat standard, developed to formalize and extend practices established by President Joe Biden’s National Heat Emphasis Program in 2022. That program has increased workplace inspections in industries where workers are at high risk for heat exposure.

According to OSHA’s summary of its proposal, “This is a significant step toward a federal heat standard to protect workers. The proposed standard would apply to all employers conducting outdoor and indoor work in all general industry, construction, maritime, and agriculture sectors where OSHA has jurisdiction. The standard would require employers to create a plan to evaluate and control heat hazards in their workplace. It would clarify employer obligations and the steps necessary to effectively protect employees from hazardous heat. The ultimate goal is to prevent and reduce the number of occupational injuries, illnesses, and fatalities caused by exposure to hazardous heat.”

Box plants—with corrugators, presses, and die cutters generating significant heat—would clearly fall within the scope of the proposal.

AF&PA has come out in support of a rule, but the organization has reservations regarding the current proposal. “Worker safety is a core value across our industry,” says Landry. “On the heat rule, our view is straightforward: We support a federal rule that is performance-based, flexible, and that allows ongoing heat-safety programs and safety innovations to continue and advance.” However, she adds that “the current proposal does not provide enough flexibility to account for the varying industries, climates, and work settings that it would cover, and may even impede safety efforts. Whatever happens after November, our position stays the same: Any federal standard should be practical, science-based, and flexible enough to work across diverse industrial settings.”

If the Republicans retain control of Congress, OSHA’s proposal is likely dead. The Trump administration has taken no action since holding hearings last year. In addition, House Republican Mark Messmer (Indiana) introduced the “Heat Workforce Standards Act of 2025” (H.R. 6213) to repeal OSHA’s proposal outright. It was co-sponsored by 23 Republicans, representing 16 states, and supported by dozens of industry organizations. In April, eight Republican senators introduced their own version: the “Heat Workforce Standards Act of 2026,” which would stop the OSHA proposal from moving forward and block future administrations from introducing anything similar.

The Heat Emphasis program prompted roughly 8,000 heat-related OSHA inspections from its start to the end of the Biden administration. Within a six-month period under President Donald Trump’s leadership, all OSHA inspections dropped by nearly 20%. Democrats have been vocal about that shift, pressing OSHA for increased and more thorough on-site inspections, including those focused on heat. That seems likely to continue should they regain some control in November.

Messages for the Hill

“The midterms may change the pace or tone of policy debates, but they do not change the need for sustained engagement,” Landry says. “No matter the midterm results, AF&PA will continue making the case for policies that support U.S. manufacturing, reflect how our paper mill systems actually work, and avoid unnecessary cost pressure on essential products.”

If she could educate the new Congress about one aspect of the industry, it would be recycling. “One of the biggest misconceptions we still correct is that paper is often grouped into the recycling problem when, in fact, it is one of the country’s strongest recycling success stories. Treating highly recycled paper the same as harder-to-recycle materials can raise costs and add administrative burdens without clear recycling gains.”

Oklahoma Interpak’s Elgin would like Washington to address rising freight costs. “I realize that’s a geopolitical thing that the midterms aren’t going to solve,” he says. Even so, it is a significant daily challenge. “When I ship products to the West Coast, a truck used to be $3,000 for a trip to California. It’s now $5,000. I’m having to really pay attention to how I can defray costs and how I work with customers. I’ve had lots of conversations with customers about increasing quantities, pooling orders together, doing things like that to make their shipping more manageable.”

Of greater concern, perhaps, are the ever-increasing regulatory requirements. “Too many regulations change so often that it’s hard to keep up,” Elgin says. “I think independents may be getting lumped in with the integrateds when it comes to the scale of the regulatory changes we see. I’d like policymakers to understand we’re in a completely different realm, especially at a company my size.

“It’s probably asking too much, but I think it would be great if politicians would work together to come up with reasonable regulations,” he says. “Let’s come up with regulations that keep people safe and keep people honest. Let’s stop making it so hard that the business isn’t worth doing anymore. Because there is a point at which it would just be easier not to do it.

“Regardless of what happens in November,” Elgin concludes, “I wish policymakers on both sides had a better understanding of how difficult it is to operate an independent manufacturing plant.”