August 24, 2026
For AICC members, the effects of the Middle East conflict may feel indirect, but they are increasingly real. Although boxmakers are far removed from the front lines, global instability has a way of showing up on the plant floor—through higher costs, delayed materials, and growing uncertainty about customer demand.
The most immediate pressure point is energy. Our manufacturing, from paper production to converting operations and transportation, is energy-intensive. When geopolitical tensions push oil and natural gas prices higher, manufacturers often see increased costs for freight, utilities, substrates, inks, adhesives, and petrochemical-based inputs. Rising fuel costs increase the expense of getting finished products to customers.
Supply chains are another challenge. Ongoing disruptions to shipping routes tied to the region have increased transit times and freight expenses in parts of the global logistics network. Even domestic boxmakers can feel the impact when machinery components, replacement parts, specialty papers, or chemicals sourced overseas become harder to secure or more expensive to transport.
For many packaging companies, uncertainty may be the greatest burden. Customers in manufacturing, retail, and consumer goods sectors are watching costs closely and adjusting inventories cautiously. That hesitation can translate into uneven order patterns for box manufacturers. Capital investment decisions, whether expanding capacity, upgrading equipment, or hiring, become harder when input costs and demand forecasts remain difficult to predict.
Yet, there are reasons for cautious optimism. AICC members have become more resilient since the supply chain disruptions of recent years. Many converters and suppliers are better prepared today than they were just a few years ago, with more diversified and alternative networks, stronger inventory strategies, greater visibility into logistics risks, more efficient installed machinery, and the promise of AI.
The essential nature of AICC members’ products also provides stability. Regardless of economic conditions, products still need to move through supply chains. E-commerce, food and beverage distribution, industrial shipping, and consumer staples continue to require corrugated packaging, helping sustain a baseline demand even during periods of volatility.
A prolonged conflict would continue to pressure costs and margins; a period of de-escalation would hopefully bring relief to energy markets and improve business confidence. As I write these words, there is no clear path.
For boxmakers, the near-term outlook may remain challenging. But our industry has demonstrated a capacity to adapt—and that resilience may prove to be one of our greatest competitive advantages in uncertain times.
Eric Elgin is owner of Oklahoma Interpak and chairman of AICC’s government affairs subcommittee. He can be reached at 918-687-1681 or eric@okinterpak.com.
