March 12, 2026
What an adventure it’s been writing these articles for almost 20 years, along with providing written response through AskRalph connections and blog. I never imagined this legacy of paying it forward for those who never had the opportunity to have traversed this amazing industry with me for more than 40 years. I had great teachers, bosses, fellow employees, and mentors along the way. Yes, “may we live in interesting times.” It has been a pleasure to serve.
The more recent interesting times in corrugated and containerboard started with the recession of 2008, when we saw a significant drop in demand and shipments of corrugated. The COVID-19 pandemic sent shipments in a trajectory in which buyers overordered, and then there was a period of inventory reconciliation. We have been whipsawed while trying to build a steady business plan for capacity expansion, modernization, or new employment development. Then, there have been the reciprocal tariffs, and export shipments have fallen off, especially those to China.
Many years ago, there were five major banks and investment firms that closely followed the containerboard and corrugated industries with comments and buy/sell recommendations. Now we are down to two, with Bank of America and Bloomberg engaging us as an Association and yet looking at one another statistically somewhat differently. Our desire is that you have heard, read, and connected with George Staphos and Ryan Fox and signed up for their newsletters or attended their events. They have also contributed to BoxScore and attended AICC meetings.
What a year 2025 was, with more than 3.5 million tons of legacy mill capacity closures, and yet mills are not running “full.” Many of these mills were virgin fiber-based and still made viable grades. However, modern machines have 300- to 330-inch trims, are faster, are focused on 31–33# linerboards, 21–23# mediums, and reengineering OCC, DLK, and mixed office waste into excellent containerboards. Those historic machines had typically been constructed for 42# linerboards and 26# mediums when designed 50 years ago.
Domestic box demand remains sluggish. From the surveys in which we have participated, there appears to be a disconnect between integrateds and independents in their orders and outlooks.
Integrated box plant closures and their megaplant announcements translate into opportunities for entrepreneurs. Closures of these usually small and frequently outdated plants often create opportunities for smaller, more agile businesses to enter the market.
New Large Economic Indicators
Gene Marks, CPA and owner of financial consulting firm The Marks Group, has a completely different perspective than what we have always relied on for economic activity. He started with an indicator we follow: the Institute of Supply Management’s Purchasing Manager’s Index, in which values over 50 indicate that the overall economy is expanding but not necessarily in all segments. The index showed a sharp decline before the pandemic and then an even larger spike in expansion. Next, he follows the National Federation of Independent Business—a measure of small-business optimism.
Next mentioned was the Architectural Billings Index, a key economic indicator that reflects the demand for nonresidential construction activity in the United States. Currently, the reading is below the neutral 50 index mark. Fourth was the Baltic Dry Index, a shipping freight cost index issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. It measures dry goods such as iron ore and grains.
The last metric is key earnings reports such as those on banks, retail, and jobs. Many of these are published in Fastmarkets’ daily and weekly reports.
So, the economy continues to be challenged by tariffs, inflation, and fluctuating employment figures. Marks’ last comment and warning is to avoid government data at all costs. There have been several changes to the business and business tax code that should benefit everyone. Remember, it’s all about margin dollars and not about margin percentage.
Ralph Young is the principal of Alternative Paper Solutions and is AICC’s technical advisor. Contact Ralph directly at askralph@AICCbox.org about technical issues that impact our industry.
